Poker Odds Tell You the Probability of Winning Any Given Hand Before we can get into a discussion of poker odds while playing poker online, you need to know how to calculate your 'outs.' Poker is Outs and Pot Odds As with honing any skill, practice makes perfect. Once you are able to accurately calculate your outs you will be able to correctly determine the pot odds you require to continue with a hand. And once you have that down, you've pretty much mastered poker. Poker odds calculate the chances of you holding a winning hand. The poker odds calculators on CardPlayer.com let you run any scenario that you see at the poker table, see your odds and outs,.

There are many aspects to poker that you learn as you play and study over time. For example:

• Knowing when it’s optimal to use ICM in your decisions or not
• Spotting great opportunities to pull off big bluffs
• Committing to double or triple-barrel based on your opponent’s post flop stats

But, there are some things that don’t need to come with time, and can be learned through memorization. Poker Outs & Odds are one of them.

A long time ago I stumbled across an Outs & Odds sheet like this one which I just created:

As a quick explanation of how to use this chart, I’ll go over an example. If you’ve got an open-ended straight draw w/78 on a board of A56, you’ve got 8 outs to hit the straight on the turn or river. Looking at the 8 outs ‘oesd’ line above, you can see that on the flop you’ve got a 31% chance you’ll hit your hand by the river (or conversely a 69% chance you’ll miss). If you’re on the turn with your 8 outs, you have just a 17% chance of hitting on the river (83% chance of missing).

The two columns on the right show how there’s a simple shortcut to the math, the x4 and the x2 rules which estimate odds based on the number of outs and the street you’re on. The shortcut is within 2% through 11 outs, and widens a little bit more at 12 outs and beyond.

When I first got this sheet I took it as gospel and didn’t bother to figure out how to come up with these numbers myself. But just today I watched a webinar by @TheAssassinato (Alex Fitzgerald) called ‘You Flat Too Much,’ and in it he showed how to calculate these odds. Let me show you how.

The Simple Math Behind Calculating Odds Based on Outs

Having 8 outs on the flop means that out of the 47 cards remaining that we don’t know about (52 card deck minus our hand minus the board), we have a chance of hitting one of these on the turn for 8/47 or 17% (83% of missing).

Later on the turn, the 8 outs would mean that out of the 46 cards remaining now (we’ve seen an additional turn card) there’s a 17.3% of hitting (82.7% of missing). Combining these two ‘missing’ %’s, means there’s a 69% chance of missing your draw in total on the flop and turn (.83 * .827), or just a 31% chance of hitting.

The x4 and the x2 rules are pretty close to these actual numbers for our in-game quick math needs.

A Little Strategy – Combining Equities

Alex also introduced me to a new concept in this video, Combining Equities. Often times when we flop a draw, we just check or check/call in the hopes of hitting our hand. In the 8 outs oesd example, this is a 31% chance of hitting our hand and winning at showdown just based on hand strength. But, if our flop donk bet needs to work 50% of the time as a bluff, and we can hit our hand 31% of the time, our bet really needs to work just 19% of the time, or 1 in 5 times. (50% minus the 31% equity). Our semi-bluff now needs to work so infrequently that if we feel he folds more than 19% of the time, we’re printing money. So making the semi-bluff means we can win it outright when he folds, and b/c we have equity, we can still win if he calls.

How do you like them apples? Much nicer than just relying on the 31% equity and catching the straight by the river. But, you can’t just do this willy-nilly. Look at your opponent’s stats, see which street he gets honest on, and make sure you get there with enough chips to scare him off his hand (assuming you haven’t hit your made hand by then and aren’t going for value).

As you can see, this math is pretty simple and all you’re using is addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. Don’t ever let poker math scare you as most of it is pretty simple once you figure out how to do it.

The next time you’re struggling with some poker math, please shoot me a question via Twitter:

Until next time, study smart, play much and make your next session the best one yet!

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Part #2 Of Our Beginners Poker Tournament Guide
Poker Odds, Outs and Expectation All Clearly And Concisely Explained!

Poker odds are a critical factor in success in online poker tournament strategy. While alone information on odds and outs will not make a player an instant winner, this knowledge will certainly give them an instantly profitable advantage over those players who do not understand these simple poker concepts correctly.

A good way to begin looking at poker odds and outs is in terms of expectation. During any game of poker we will be faced with a number of ‘bets’ at various prices. When you bet with the odds in your favor then you have a positive expectation. That is to say that regardless of the outcome of any particular hand you will show a profit over time. If you bet or call when the odds are against you then your wagers have a negative expectation, that is you will lose money over time.

The most commonly referenced form of poker odds are known as ‘Pot Odds’. This describes the price you are getting when calling a bet from an opponent compared to the current amount of money already in the pot.

For example, if the total pot - including your opponent’s last bet - was $100 and you had to call a $20 bet then your current pot-odds are exactly 5/1. Pot odds are useful when working out whether your call has a positive expectation. In this example, assuming this was the final bet of the hand, then you simply need to work out whether you have a greater than 20% (1 in 5) chance of winning the hand. If you think this is the case then calling will show a profit over time if you think your chances are lower then calling will lose money over time and your hand should be folded.

Pot-Odds can also be used before the last card is dealt. Imagine you have King-Jack of spades and by the time the turn card is dealt there are 2 other spades showing. With 1 card to come you are sure that hitting a spade will win the hand for you. In this situation you need to compare the pot-odds being offered to your chances of winning the hand. In this case you are approximately 4.5/1 against hitting that last spade (see ‘outs chart’ below for more information on this).

Thus if you are getting better than 4.5/1 odds from the pot then calling will show a profit over time. If you are getting less than this price then calling will lose money over time and you should not usually call the bet.

Looking at the current odds that you are getting by calling a bet leaves out one very important factor. You may be able to win one or more additional bets after the last card has been dealt. This is especially significant in No-Limit Holdem Tournaments where you can bet any amount you like. The additional bets you might win if you make your flush (for example) are known as the Implied-Odds and need to be factored into your expectation.

To return to the King-Jack of spades example, the pot-odds after the turn has been dealt there is $30 in the pot and your opponent bets $10 more. Here you are getting odds of 4/1 with a 4.5/1 of completing your flush, pot-odds alone indicate a negative expectation from this bet. However after the river, if you do make your flush by hitting that last spade then you estimate that your opponent will call an additional $20 bet. Your implied odds are now the $30 in the pot + $10 bet from your opponent + $20 on the river for a total of $60. This means that the real odds of your $10 call on the turn were 6/1. If you take 6/1 odds on a 4.5/1 chance then you will show a profit each time – you will have a positive expectation for the bet.

Planet Mark's Tool Tip! Did you know that poker software tools are available which automatically calculate the math, leaving you to outplay your opponents? I strongly recommend Tournament Indicator, which watches your opponents while you play then uses a unique algo based on Dan Harrington's famous 'M' to recommend the best action. This tool not only stops you from making mathematical mistakes, you can actually start profiting from poker tournaments while you are learning. Find out more and take a free trial at the Tournament Indicator Website now!

What are Poker ‘Outs’ and how are they calculated?

During the play of any hand there are a number of the unseen cards left in play that will improve your hand, and a number that will not. Any card that will improve your current holding is known as an ‘out’. Any hand that is not yet complete, for example 4 cards to a flush or 4 cards to a straight, is known as a ‘drawing hand’ or just ‘draw’. Poker odds can be used to assess whether your play has a positive expectation if you know the basic chart of ‘outs’ that will improve your hand.

A Full Outs Chart is Below - Here are the most common poker outs:

1. 4 Cards to a Flush with 2 cards to come: Odds = 1.9/1 (35%)
2. 4 Cards to a Flush with 1 card to come: Odds = 4.1/1 (19%)
3. 4 Cards to a Straight with 2 cards to come: Odds = 2.2/1 (32%)
4. 4 Cards to a Straight with 1 card to come: Odds = 4.7/1 (17%)
5. Inside Straight Draw, 2-3-5-6, 2 cards to come: Odds = 4/1 (20%)
6. Inside Straight Draw, 2-3-5-6, 1 card to come: Odds = 10/1 (10%)

As you gain experience in using poker odds and outs you will be able to quickly calculate your winning chances using simple math. After the flop in Holdem there are 5 cards which you have seen – and so 47 unseen cards. You calculate the number of cards that will help your hand out of those unseen cards and then divide this number by 47. For example if you calculate that 10 cards will improve your hand then (10/47) = 4.7/1 odds which is approximately 21% winning chance, with 2 cards to come then doubling the winning chances is close enough for most situations. Learning the most common outs from the chart below will help you make good decisions during a hand – remember that if you take positive expectation bets you will show a profit over time!

SNG Planet Tip: A quick way of calculating your chances of making a hand after the flop (with 2 cards to come) is the ‘Rule of 4’ – Simply Multiply the number of cards to make your hand by 4! For example if you have 4 to a flush on the flop then there are 9 unseen cards of your suit that will make your hand… 9*4 = 36% which is very close to the 34.97% shown on the outs chart above! With just one card to come you multiply by 2 instead.

Poker Odds And Outs

One last thing, tournament pros tend to congregate at the bigger poker sites - you will find significantly easier games at mid-sized sites, especially those linked with sports-books and casino brands (since the 'gamblers' come over into the poker rooms!). I recommend 888 Poker as a fantastic place to profit from tournaments while you are learning. Check out the games for yourself, you will see the difference!

Poker Odds And Outs For Dummies

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