Poker Quads Over Quads
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- Unlike sets where you occasionally will lose set over set, going quads over quads is neigh inconceivable. In general quads are a serious long shot. Here’s a look at some of stats related to four-of-a-kind: 2%: Percent chance to hit quads by the river with a pocket pair (1 in 122).
- With 7 cards to choose from in hold'em, your hole cards and the board, the odds of making quads is about 1 in 595. (13. (48 choose 3)) / (52 choose 7) which = 0.7 or 1 in 595. This is over the entire 7 cards. So for another person to have quads in the same hand we figure out how many possible hands are left.
- Playing micros on Bovada I have had quads vs. The nut full house two times in the last month (I am guessing about 4000 hands). Quad 6s vs queens full of 6s and quad 10s vs queens full of 10s. There were 3 10s on the board on the last hand. I don't know the odds, but it feels pretty lucky to me.
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A casino in Arizona last week was home to one of the worst bad beats you’ll ever see.
At the Casino Del Sol Poker Room in Tuscon, a run-of-the-mill $1-$2 table saw some crazy fireworks with a $18,000 bad beat jackpot up for grabs. When the dust settled, one player was sitting with a straight flush, which trounced a player with quad nines and a player with quad tens, as pictured above. The photo was posted to Reddit’s poker forum.
The player with the king-high straight flush received $4,500 of the bad beat, while the player with quad tens received the lion’s share of $9,000. The player who had flopped quad nines received just $665, the same as every other player at the table uninvolved with the hand.
The payout structure is typical of bad beat jackpots, but it’s virtually unheard of for there to be three qualifying hands in a bad beat. Under bad beat jackpot rules in poker rooms across the country, you must play both of your hole cards. The absurdity of the hand apparently had the poker room a little confused. It took about 90 minutes for the payouts to occur.
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The man who suffered the bad beat on the bad beat was 37-year-old recreational poker player R.J. Bergman, reported PokerNews. Bergman, a YMCA program director, lost his $165 stack in the hand, so he really only won $500 for losing with quad nines.
Bergman wasn’t happy with the result. The 10 that landed on the river was a cruel card because the player with pocket tens wasn’t live to win the hand.
“I explained [to the casino] that the 10s were drawing dead on the turn so how is it a bad beat for him,” he wrote on Reddit. “They said it goes by the rank of the cards after the hand is done.”
However, argued Bergman, “the single card that improves his hand over mine is the case 10 and that gives the other guy the straight flush. He had 0 percent to win the hand after the turn card came out. I was a 98 percent favorite.”
What has Bergman learned from the hand?
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“Never slow play flopped quads!” he wrote tongue-in-cheek. “I wake up every morning shaking my head. My friends are saying I should start a Gofundme page to cover the therapy bills I am going to need. Any supporters in that?”
Poker Odds Quads Over Quads
Bergman added that the hand makes him feel “queasy.”